The A Todo Trigo 2026 conference kicked off in Mar del Plata, where Argentina’s Secretary of Agriculture, Sergio Iraeta, delivered a carefully worded message that could signal future cuts to export taxes on wheat.
“I encourage you to plant wheat, to stay motivated and strong. On this side, there’s someone who has grown wheat his entire life and knows exactly the calculations you’re making. We are going to do everything possible to ensure wheat has the competitiveness it needs by harvest time,” Iraeta said.
“I’m a producer myself, and I’m telling you: plant, have confidence, because wheat will be competitive at harvest,” he added with a slight smile.
He also recalled:
“The last time I sold wheat, before becoming a government official, the dollar was worth 300 pesos, and by the time I turned around it was worth 900 — and that was the exchange rate used to price glyphosate, urea, and everything else. That paradigm has changed.”
During the opening speech, Iraeta emphasized measures already taken by the government to improve agricultural competitiveness:
“A lot has been done. Within our possibilities, we’ve implemented many measures that favor the competitiveness of the farming sector. I was reading a FADA report about what urea prices would have been without the elimination of the PAIS tax. Planting wheat would have been impossible.”
Another notable remark was:
“For 40 years, the only thing governments have done to agriculture is milk it dry — I agree. That’s what happened to me over the last 40 years, and it’s what we’re trying to change. We’re not perfect, but we are making changes.”
He also revealed ongoing discussions with Economy Minister Luis Caputo:
“We’re doing what we can. Every Thursday we meet with Caputo, and I bring him all the numbers showing production costs. We’re getting organized, and it’s not just the economic team — it’s everyone here at A Todo Trigo making decisions that help stabilize macroeconomic policy.”
How Much Wheat Will Be Planted in Argentina?
At the “A Todo Trigo” Congress, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange presented its first projections for the 2026/27 winter crop season, amid favorable weather conditions for planting but still-tight economic conditions for producers.
The exchange estimated:
- Wheat planted area: 6.5 million hectares
- Projected wheat production: 21.3 million metric tons
If achieved, this would represent the third-largest wheat harvest in Argentine history, surpassed only by last season’s record crop and another exceptional harvest five years ago.
For barley:
- Projected planted area: 1.35 million hectares
- Projected production: 5.25 million metric tons
During the presentation, the Grain Exchange’s general manager, Ramiro Costa, explained that the expected year-over-year decline in wheat production is mainly due to comparison with last season’s extraordinary record crop.
“Even with that decline compared to last year, we are still talking about a very significant campaign in historical and productive terms,” Costa said.
Favorable Weather Conditions
The presentation highlighted that abundant rainfall in recent months significantly replenished soil moisture reserves, creating favorable conditions for winter crop planting across much of Argentina’s agricultural region.
International Context
Costa warned that volatility persists in global energy and fertilizer markets, while some major producing countries face less favorable production prospects.
In this environment, international wheat prices recently improved due to weaker production expectations in key regions such as:
- United States
- Australia
- Parts of Europe
Tight Margins for Producers
Locally, the Grain Exchange stressed that projected profit margins for the upcoming campaign remain tight.
In this context, any additional improvement in prices or reduction in costs could be decisive for:
- The final planted area
- The technological investment level adopted by producers
“The economic scenario remains tight. Small changes in economic variables can generate significant impacts on planting and technology investment decisions,” Costa noted.
He added that continued reductions in export duties on wheat and barley would improve the crop’s economic outlook.
Export Diversification and Economic Impact
The presentation also emphasized that since 2015, Argentina has significantly diversified its wheat export destinations while maintaining Brazil as its primary market.
Economically, the wheat and barley sectors are projected to contribute:
- USD 4.015 billion in added value
- USD 4.603 billion in exports
Although both indicators are expected to decline slightly compared to last season, stronger international prices partially offset the projected drop in production, limiting the anticipated reduction in foreign currency inflows.