Just days before the start of the 2025/26 campaign, Argentina’s soybean market is beginning to show signs of reconfiguration. After a cycle marked by exceptional conditions —such as the temporary reduction in export duties (retenciones)—, the business is realigning with its historical logic: more industry, less export of unprocessed grain.
The starting point is moderate. The Declaraciones Juradas de Ventas al Exterior (DJVE – Sworn Declarations of Foreign Sales) show a registration level significantly lower than usual for this time of year. In soybean oil, for example, only 161,000 tons were registered for April shipments, well below the figures from the previous cycle and the average of recent years. The trend is similar for soybean meal, with volumes reaching just over a third of what is typically declared.
However, this apparent weakness could reverse in the short term. Since 2024, the sector has been operating more frequently under the “short DJ” scheme, which allows exports to be registered with tighter shipment deadlines. In this context, an acceleration in declarations is expected during April, in line with the arrival of the new harvest.
In terms of supply, estimates place production between 48 and 48.5 million tons, slightly below the previous cycle. Nevertheless, this shortfall could be offset by a higher flow of temporary imports from Paraguay, which are already posting record levels for this time of year.
The real change in trend, however, is on the price side. Soybean meal has shown a sustained rise in recent weeks, reaching values not seen for at least a year. This uptick significantly improves the margins of the oilseed crushing industry, which is once again operating in positive territory.
The other side of the coin is the export of soybeans (whole beans), whose business has lost competitiveness and is now moving in negative margins. This is no minor detail: it explains the almost zero registration of new foreign sales of grain and reinforces the expectation of a change in the composition of exports.
In this scenario, it is unlikely that the volume of soybeans exported last campaign will be repeated, as that was boosted by exceptional tax conditions. Everything indicates that shipments will return to levels closer to historical averages, freeing up raw material for local processing.
This shift favors the industry, which could regain prominence after a cycle in which it lost market share to direct grain exports. At the same time, it anticipates a more active market in the coming weeks, with crushing as the main driver.
As analyzed by Javier Preciado Patiño, agronomist and agribusiness consultant: “If international prices hold above US$ 350 per ton, it is likely that producers will follow with sales and consolidate this dynamic.”
Looking ahead to the new campaign, price remains the main balancing factor. But the change in trend is already underway: the soybean complex is once again finding its strategic core in industrialization, in a context where value-added production is gaining ground over the simple export of raw material.