Argentine agriculture is once again looking at a season with high expectations. For the 2026/27 campaign, total production is projected at 155.8 million tonnes (Mt), a volume 10% lower than the record of 172.4 Mt achieved in the current season. Despite this scenario, it would rank as the second-highest figure on record.
The other standout figure is exports. With a favorable international price environment, agro-industrial shipments could generate US$ 42,200 million, above the US$ 41,800 million estimated for the current season and higher than the previous maximum recorded in 2021/22.
The productive year will be conditioned by the weather. While winter crops advance toward the stages that define yields and require additional rainfall in some regions, the coarse-grain campaign starts with good initial conditions and expectations of a La Niña phenomenon during spring and summer.
Wheat, corn and soybean: the main projections
Among the crops, wheat appears with an estimated area of 6.95 million hectares and projected production of 21 Mt. The area ultimately recovered relative to the first estimates of the season, following the drop in urea prices and the rains recorded during June.
For corn, planting intention stands at 10.6 million hectares, 4% below the 2025/26 season. With trend yields, preliminary production is estimated at 67.5 Mt.
Soybean, meanwhile, shows a recovery in area after several cycles of decline. 16.7 million hectares are projected, 2% more than in the previous season, although with estimated production of 47.8 Mt, 7% less than in the current cycle, mainly due to the return of yields to average levels.
Sunflower would maintain an area close to 3.2 million hectares and projected production of 7 Mt. Sorghum, for its part, would keep an area near 800,000 hectares and an estimated harvest of 2.1 Mt.
Taken together, these numbers place the 2026/27 season in a high-production scenario. Nevertheless, adjustments may occur as planting advances and the actual crop development conditions become known.
Exports: the agro sector could set a new record
The exportable volume is preliminarily estimated at 113 Mt, some 5.8 Mt less than forecast for the current cycle. Within that total, grains would contribute 70.7 Mt, with corn again the main export product at 45 Mt, followed by wheat with 13 Mt and barley with 3.2 Mt.
This would be joined by 33.7 Mt of by-products and about 8.5 Mt of oils. Soybean meal would account for 30.6 Mt of the by-products, while soybean oil would contribute 6.2 Mt and sunflower oil 1.9 Mt.
In terms of foreign exchange, the soybean complex would continue as the main generator, with around US$ 22,000 million, while corn would reach US$ 10,100 million, its historical maximum. The wheat complex would contribute US$ 3,500 million and sunflower US$ 3,400 million.
The projections for 2026/27 are compared with an exceptional 2025/26 season. The current cycle reached 172.4 Mt, driven by yields well above trend values, in addition to production records in wheat, corn and soybean.
For the new cycle, the estimate starts from a total area that is practically stable and from estimated trend yields. The production cut is mainly due to the return to normal levels after the extraordinary results of the current season.
The figures are still preliminary, especially for summer crops. The evolution of rainfall over the coming months will be decisive in confirming, improving or reducing the productive potential. If weather conditions are favorable, the 2026/27 season would not only keep agriculture at historically high levels, but could also deliver a new record in foreign-exchange inflows from agro-industrial exports.