This was how Miguel Simioni, president of the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), opened the presentation of AGMEMOD (Agricultural Member State Modelling) at the institution’s Santa Fe headquarters. AGMEMOD, a European-origin model, was adapted by the BCR’s Department of Reports and Economic Studies (DIYEE) to Argentina’s reality to project the country’s agricultural sector over the next 10 years.

Specifically, the BCR used 2024 as a baseline and ran this mathematical model based on various variables to estimate improvements in harvested volumes, exports, and foreign currency inflows under three improvement scenarios:

• Infrastructure enhancements
• Elimination of export tariffs (retenciones)
• Reduction of yield gaps

Broadly, the BCR researchers concluded that, from a baseline of 159.3 million tons of major crops projected for 2035 under current conditions, production could exceed 250 million tons if all these improvements were implemented. This would expand Argentina’s agricultural revenue by USD 17 billion over the next decade.

A European Model for the Future of Agriculture

The model’s presentation took place ahead of the auction of the first soybean lot, held on Friday at noon in the BCR’s trading hall.

Initially, two Dutch specialists involved in AGMEMOD’s development and expansion explained its features, used in various European countries since 2000.

“Models help us analyze different scenarios in a structured way. We don’t predict the future, but they help us analyze and consider what might happen. They rely on real data and trend studies to explain what could occur if certain measures are applied,” emphasized Myrna van Leeuwen, one of the specialists.

In Europe, AGMEMOD is primarily used to assess outcomes of environmentally friendly production policies. Verena Laquai added that the Netherlands, Germany, Hungary, and Croatia are the most active users, while outside the EU, Ukraine and Argentina are developing it. For example, in Hungary, it was used to analyze poultry farming and evaluate market reactions to reduced production.

“Our goal is to improve and expand the model. We’re very excited to see what happens in Argentina with its use,” Laquai concluded.

The “Ideal” Future of Argentine Agriculture

BCR economists Emilce Terré, Natalia Marín, and Tomás Rodríguez Zurro then detailed how the model was applied to Argentina’s reality. Although based on European technology, Argentina’s unique characteristics—such as its vast and diverse production, grain marketing and transport methods, and distinct policies—required the BCR to adapt AGMEMOD to ensure reliable results.

Baseline Scenario

The analysis started with a 2024 baseline: a 40% exchange rate gap and the export tariffs in place at the time (not the recently reduced ones). Under this perspective, the projection for 2035 estimated a maximum production of 159.3 million tons and 105.6 million tons in exports.

Baseline Scenario, No Exchange Rate Gap

With the exchange rate gap already eliminated, BCR technicians modeled this situation, determining that it raises the production horizon to 168.8 million tons by 2035, with 112.9 million tons in exports and approximately USD 33 billion in foreign currency inflows.

Scenario 1: Infrastructure Improvements

This scenario considers significant improvements through infrastructure investments, such as better roads and access to streamline grain transport, increased rail freight, deeper navigable waterways, and a cabotage law.

The model estimated a jump to a harvest of 179.3 million tons, with 119.8 million tons in exports and USD 35.72 billion in revenue.

“Corn and wheat would benefit the most due to the impact of freight costs,” Rodríguez Zurro highlighted.

Scenario 2: Eliminating Export Tariffs

Adding the elimination of export tariffs over an estimated four-year period to infrastructure improvements, Terré noted that total sown area would grow to 42 million hectares.

The harvest? It would surpass 200 million tons (201.8 million), with 136.9 million tons exported, generating USD 41.202 billion in foreign currency.

Scenario 3: Reducing Yield Gaps

Finally, with improved infrastructure and no export tariffs, BCR considers producers would be able to adopt more technology, narrowing yield gaps. The model assumed reaching 80% of dryland yield potential.

“The potential of Argentine agriculture is tremendous,” Rodríguez Zurro emphasized. This scenario projected 251.4 million tons of grain, with 174.2 million tons exported and over USD 50 billion in revenue.

Conclusion

By implementing all improvements, Argentina could increase production by over 70 million tons, exports by more than 60 million tons, and generate an additional USD 17 billion in revenue.

“To put this in perspective, it’s like adding a second soybean complex to Argentina or exceeding the projected USD 15 billion contribution from mining by 2030,” Terré concluded.