The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) introduced AGMEMOD, a platform capable of projecting the future of Argentina’s productive and export sectors.
Developed by Dutch and German experts, AGMEMOD (Agricultural Member State Modelling) analyzes how macroeconomic and policy variables shape export scenarios. Adapted to Argentina’s context by the BCR’s Department of Reports and Economic Studies (DIYEE), the tool has generated optimistic projections despite the challenge of applying a European model -designed for stable variables- to Argentina’s volatile environment.
According to AGMEMOD, over the next decade, Argentina could multiply its exports, foreign currency inflows, and sown area, provided significant reforms are implemented. The analysis highlights three key transformations: substantial improvements in logistics infrastructure, the elimination of export duties (DEX), and widespread adoption of the best available technologies in production systems.
Under these conditions, the model projects Argentina could reach a grain production of 250 million tons by 2035—a 57% increase over the baseline scenario. Economically, this would translate into an additional $17 billion in exports, comparable to the current value of the entire soybean complex. This suggests that, with the right conditions, Argentine agriculture could create a “second export complex” to boost the national economy.
BCR President Miguel Simioni emphasized: “We know what happens when agriculture grows: more activity, more jobs, more trade, and a concrete contribution to the country’s economic development.”
Natalia Marín, a BCR statistician, explained: “This model, used by the European Commission to evaluate agricultural policies, first projects what would happen if everything remains unchanged in terms of macroeconomics and policy. Then, it presents scenarios to quantify outcomes, such as eliminating export duties, improving logistics and port access, or producers adopting the best technological packages due to increased confidence.”
BCR economist Tomás Rodríguez added: “The model can answer ‘what if’ questions by comparing scenarios while keeping other factors constant. It incorporates assumptions about GDP growth, population, exchange rates, exchange rate gaps, restrictions, export duties, export quotas, and more. You can adjust these variables to see their impact compared to the baseline.”
Marín noted that the model was not directly applied from Europe but adjusted to reflect Argentina’s reality, yielding promising initial results.
Rodríguez detailed: “In the baseline scenario, with conditions as of December 31 last year—33% soybean DEX, 31% by-product DEX, 12% cereal DEX, and a 40% exchange rate gap—Argentina could produce 160 million tons by 2035, about 10 million tons more than last year across the six main crops (soybeans, corn, wheat, sunflower, sorghum, barley). This would generate export value of around $33 billion.”
The Santa Fe experts, optimistic about AGMEMOD’s projections, further stated: “If by 2035, investments reduce logistics and storage costs, export duties are eliminated, and producers confidently invest in technology, with all adopting the best available tech and achieving 80% of potential yields, Argentina could produce nearly 250 million tons, equivalent to $50 billion in exports.”