The recently concluded 2023/24 campaign recorded the third-highest soybean crushing volume in history, which, thanks to a better extraction rate, resulted in the second-highest level of oil production. At the same time, due to the strong competitiveness of Argentina’s supplies and relatively lower domestic consumption for biodiesel production, a record export volume of 6.4 million tons (Mt) was achieved, according to a report by the Economic Department of the Rosario Board of Trade (BCR).
However, the outlook for the upcoming 2024/25 campaign is less optimistic. A projected decline in Argentina’s soybean harvest (from 50 Mt to 45.5 Mt, according to GEA-BCR estimates) combined with production challenges in Paraguay, which would limit imports, will reduce the availability of raw material for the oilseed industry, constraining production.
According to estimates, the volume of industrialized soybeans in the 2024/25 campaign is expected to be around 41.5 Mt, a 3.5% decrease compared to the previous campaign. Nevertheless, this would still be 14% above the average of the last five campaigns, which stood at 36.4 Mt.
Projections indicate that from the soybean crop, approximately 8.2 Mt of soybean oil would be obtained, a drop of about 400,000 tons compared to the 2023/24 campaign. However, this volume would be 800,000 tons higher than the average of the last five campaigns.
Demand
On the demand side, exports in the upcoming campaign are projected to reach 6.1 Mt, about 290,000 tons less than the record set in the previous campaign, but 16% above the average of the last five years. This would allow Argentina to maintain its position as the world’s leading supplier of soybean oil for the 29th consecutive year, a milestone first achieved in the 1996/97 campaign.
According to INDEC data, the top five countries to which Argentina exported soybean oil in 2024 were: India (over 50% of total exports), Bangladesh (8.7%), China (8.3%), Peru (5.9%), and Mozambique (3.9%).
Additionally, approximately 1.4 Mt is expected to be used for biodiesel production, a 19% increase compared to the 2023/24 campaign, raising the share of oil used in this industry from 14% to 17.5%. Export expectations for biodiesel are quite promising, with estimates suggesting they could reach 1 Mt, more than doubling the previous campaign’s figure.
Finally, 639,000 tons would be allocated to other domestic uses, as soybean oil is used in products ranging from medicines (e.g., antibiotics) to food products (e.g., cooking oils and dressings), cosmetics, and other diverse applications. Together, biodiesel and other domestic consumption would account for a total apparent consumption of approximately 2.1 Mt, close to the average of the last five campaigns.
Soybean Meal
Regarding soybean meal, with a solvent crushing volume of 40 Mt, the 2024/25 soybean meal production is estimated at 30.4 Mt, a 3.6% decline compared to the previous campaign. This volume is 3.2 Mt above the average of the last five campaigns and ranks as the fourth highest in history, behind the 34 Mt achieved in the 2014/15 campaign.
In terms of demand, Argentina has a strongly export-oriented profile, with around 95% of production sold abroad over the past five years for further consumption or value addition in other countries. For the 2024/25 campaign, Argentina is expected to consolidate its recovery as the world’s leading exporter of soybean meal, after losing the top spot to Brazil in 2022/23 due to a historic drought. Exports are projected at 29 Mt, a 3.6% decrease from the previous campaign but 12% above the average of the last five years.