In an economy that has shifted from near-hyperinflation and constant currency devaluations to a scenario where the rise in living costs is shrinking month by month and the dollar has remained stable for over a year, the way business decisions are made must change.
This was the consensus reached by various economists and analysts who participated in Expoagro, where economic and financial topics took center stage in public discussions, with issues like export duties and the wide availability of credit dominating the debate.
David Miazzo kicked off the Economic Forum on Tuesday, an initiative hosted by Expoagro at the open-air SPS amphitheater, where Salvador Di Stefano and Claudio Zuchovicki also spoke in the following days.
Under the theme “Economy and Agriculture: What Can We Project for 2025?”, Miazzo presented an encouraging outlook for the coming months: “We have some good news: positive economic activity, real wage recovery, fiscal balance, exchange rate stability. Today, we have the same exchange rate—or just slightly higher—than last year. That’s highly significant. These are some of the positive developments we’re seeing on the macroeconomic side.”
Economic Analysis at Expoagro: What Will Happen with the Dollar?
The Córdoba-based expert acknowledged, however, that “there are some doubts and concerns, especially regarding the exchange rate. When will we exit the currency controls? At what exchange rate? In recent days, the gap [between official and parallel rates] has heated up a bit, and the country risk has risen in an unfavorable international context.”
He also noted that the agreement with the IMF plays a key role, as it “will help with two central issues: first, lowering the country risk. Why? Because the IMF deal will have two parts: refinancing maturities for at least the next three years.” On the exchange rate front, it will aim to facilitate an orderly exit from currency controls.
Regarding the exchange rate, he explained that “an influx of fresh dollars will give the government some cushion to exit the controls in an organized manner.”
The specialist also pointed out that “the current model of a fixed exchange rate, adjusted by 1% monthly, isn’t favored by the IMF. They don’t like fixed exchange rates, especially starting from a relatively undervalued level like the one we have now.”
“So, that’s where we see one of the biggest changes. We’ll likely move toward a band system or a managed float, as it’s called in economics, where the exchange rate moves more freely,” he affirmed.
The Producer’s Economy: Changing Decision-Making
According to Miazzo, it’s “a relatively complicated price situation, though corn has provided some relief in the last two months with good prices, especially in the domestic market,” yet it still faces some price volatility.
“And that creates a problem for decision-making, because on top of it already being hard to decide when to sell, there’s additional volatility,” he added.
Nevertheless, he noted that producers are starting to see that “exchange rate stability seems here to stay, which changes decision-making—for example, not waiting for a devaluation to sell, or evaluating credit, whether it’s expensive or cheap. Today, a 35% rate in pesos—which is very good compared to a year ago, half of what we saw then—is still a relatively high rate.”
To wrap up, Miazzo argued that “it’s very hard for producers and all Argentines to start thinking in pesos when the peso was trash, constantly losing value. The idea is to rebuild confidence and shift away from relying on soybeans and more toward pesos, taking advantage of interest rates. That’s a significant change that clearly needs to be analyzed month by month.”
Salvador Di Stefano expressed a similar view, titling his talk: “The New Business of Agriculture: Toward a Shift in Decision-Making Architecture.”
To open his presentation, Di Stefano drew a parallel between how the agricultural business worked under Alberto Fernández’s economic plan and how it has evolved under Javier Milei’s administration. He also highlighted key features regarding productivity, efficiency, financing, costs, and other variables in the agricultural business.
In his talk, Di Stefano provided data to explain why the 2025/2026 economic scenario would feature an abundance of dollars, a scarcity of pesos, high peso interest rates, low dollar rates, and inflation not being a concern in the coming months.
“The current economic scenario is one of fiscal surplus, coupled with state deregulation, so the government will do everything possible to significantly lower inflation, reduce taxes, and deregulate the economy as much as possible to boost competitiveness in the country,” the analyst told a large audience.
On the other hand, he acknowledged that “at this pace, if the broad monetary base is frozen, we’ll head toward a scenario of currency competition, with dollars playing a larger role than pesos in the economy,” adding that “the only path forward is to be extremely efficient in everything we do.”
A Tailwind from International Prices?
In parallel, Di Stefano considered that “for agriculture, we have a positive scenario because it will benefit from rising international prices, plus a reduction in export duties, which should drive sector development.”
On this occasion, the economist also offered the audience insights to manage the agricultural business in the current context: “The best advice for producers is to keep doing what they’ve always done—be efficient, productive, and use all the tools in the futures market to capture prices and secure margins.”
He elaborated: “Times are coming when credit will be expensive, and we’ll need to work with our own capital, so we must be very precise in analyzing costs and reducing them to the bare minimum, buying inputs that improve productivity and efficiency in the field.”
Claudio Zuchovicki’s Perspective
Finally, another economist who spoke at Expoagro was Claudio Zuchovicki, who participated in various activities, including the Angus Conference.
In his talk, titled “2025: A Year of Real Economy Growth,” he agreed that the national administration has set a course to “achieve fiscal surplus and lower inflation. They took office promising to reduce inflation and will do everything possible to stick to that line,” which implies “spending less than what comes in.”
He also emphasized the significant reduction in public spending: “Before, public spending accounted for 45% to 47% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and it has now dropped to 31%.”
Elsewhere in his speech, the economist argued that “if Argentina manages to grow 5% in 2025, as projected, it’s very likely that tax revenue will rise, and the government will be in a comfortable position to lower taxes.”
At the same time, he stressed that “now the effort falls on the private sector, because the state has already shrunk,” and argued that further tax reductions are needed for GDP to grow.
Zuchovicki also opined that the government’s main challenge is ensuring that tax cuts are comprehensive and effective, including provinces, municipalities, and communes.
Regarding the loan the government is negotiating with the IMF, he acknowledged that “it will allow the Central Bank’s real reserves to grow. It’s a political loan, not an economic one. From that perspective, this credit won’t change our lives, but it will improve the balance sheet structure.”
To close, the economist forecasted: “We’re heading into an environment where we won’t be able to compete on price, where we’ll need to be highly efficient and productive. 2024 was a financial year, and I don’t think that will repeat in 2025.”
“2025 is a year of real economy, but one of decisions and acquisitions because I need to scale up and measure internally how I manage costs. It’s the time to make decisions: if this is permanent, if it lasts at least three years, I need to see if I have the capital to endure three years with inflation under control and an orderly macroeconomy,” he concluded.