The Paraná River recorded its lowest level so far this year, with 0.33 meters on Wednesday, October 2, in the port of Rosario, according to the Argentine Naval Prefecture. This figure is two meters below the same period in 2023 and is an indication of the severe low water level affecting the region, largely due to the lack of rain and low water conditions in the Delta.
This situation is not recent. During the month of September, the river levels fluctuated constantly. At the beginning of the month, the Paraná maintained levels above one meter, but towards the end, the records fell to 0.34 meters on September 23 and 24, according to measurements by the Prefecture in Rosario.

On October 1, the National Water Institute (INA) issued a statement on the situation of the Paraná in the Argentine section: “These are trends considered in the average daily values. The levels are in the low water range, slightly increasing. During October 4, the forecasts for 4 and 11 days will be updated and published again.” Despite this slight improvement, the situation remains delicate and requires continuous monitoring to determine whether the river will be able to recover higher levels in the near future.

The recent data obtained by the Prefecture in the port of Rosario contrast significantly with what happened in the month of May, when the river exceeded the peak of 3 meters, while in the summer of 2023, the levels reached over 4.80 meters. At that time, the flow was dangerously close to 5 meters, which is an alert threshold.

The National Geographic Institute points out that phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña, caused by changes in the circulation of winds and marine currents in the Pacific Ocean, directly influence the rainfall regime

The evacuation zone in this region is located at 5.30 meters, which means that the Paraná was very close to these limits at critical moments. Meanwhile, according to the “Hydrometric Forecast” of the INA, the Paraná River in the area of ​​the port of Rosario is expected to fluctuate between 0.40 meters and 1.15 meters for October 8. Towards the middle of the month, the projections range between 0.20 and 1.15 meters, which implies that the river could remain at low levels during the next few weeks.

The impact of the La Niña phenomenon
To understand part of this dynamic of the Paraná River, it is necessary to delve into the data of the National Meteorological Service (SMN). “According to the dynamic and statistical models, on average, in the October-November-December 2024 quarter (OND), there is an 81% probability of the development of La Niña. This probability remains high during the remainder of spring and summer,” indicates a report from the agency. According to the SMN, during the La Niña phase, rainfall tends to be below normal.

In turn, along these lines, the National Geographic Institute (IGN) conceptualizes: “Droughts and floods in our country are related to two general atmospheric circulation events that are commonly called El Niño and La Niña. These phenomena are caused by changes in the circulation of winds and ocean currents as a result of the movements of high and low pressure centers that occur in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean, between the town of Darwin in Australia and the island of Tahiti.”

“During La Niña episodes in Argentina, there is a drastic decrease in rainfall in large regions of the country, generating serious problems in the agricultural sector,” the IGN postulates.