According to a recent report from the Rosario Board of Trade, the evolution of “La Niña” for the 2024/25 growing season presents both good and bad news for the agricultural sector. Updated data from international organizations indicate a significant shift in the timing of the lowest cooling values in the Pacific, which could alter the expected impact of “La Niña” on crops in the country’s key production regions.

For the spring of 2024, projections suggest a more favorable scenario for early maize planting. This crop, which has shown sustained growth over the past nine cycles, is now facing an estimated year-over-year decrease of 30% in the core region and 21% nationally. However, the recent delay in the onset of “La Niña” could offer an opportunity to reverse this trend.

According to the report, “There is a clear shift in the current curve compared to 30 days ago. It has moved forward by two months. This means that the lowest anomalies would occur starting from 2025.” This delay suggests that September rains could approach normal levels, alleviating one of the main concerns for producers: the lack of water during maize planting.

Despite these positive developments for early maize, the outlook for the summer of 2025 is less encouraging, especially for first-crop soybeans. The report warns that “La Niña” conditions are expected to intensify starting in January, increasing the risk of water shortages during the critical period for these crops.

“The intensity of ‘La Niña’ remains moderate, as was noted a month ago, but now it is forecasted that its most negative impact will occur in January, not December as previously expected,” the document details. This shift poses a significant challenge for soybean producers, who will need to carefully plan their planting dates to minimize risks associated with water shortages.

Additionally, the report highlights that, unlike the last “La Niña” in 2022/23, this time there is no expectation that the Indian Ocean Dipole’s neutrality will exacerbate water shortages. Although this factor does not substantially alter drought concerns, it might partly ease tensions in some regions during the early months of 2025.