“There are almost no chances of a second ‘La Niña’
A report from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) indicates that “there are almost no chances of a second ‘La Niña’,” according to consultant Alfredo Elorriaga. The report adds that “recent data from NOAA dismisses a rebound in cooling.”
The probabilities of a second “La Niña” have fallen below 50% for April 2025, according to the recent report from BCR. In this context, Alfredo Elorriaga, a consultant for the Rosario entity, explained that new updates from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) show a significant trend toward neutrality starting in April 2025, which is good news for Argentina.
Elorriaga pointed out that “there are almost no chances of a second ‘La Niña’,” emphasizing that in instances where there were two consecutive “La Niñas,” there was no neutrality in between, as predicted by models this time. “It would be very atypical for warming to occur after cooling, followed by another ‘La Niña.’ This has only happened once in the last 30 years, between 2016 and 2017,” he added.
The possibility of another “La Niña” for 2025-2026 “is off the table.”
The report details that the probability of “La Niña” for March 2025 has dropped from 73% to 66% in July, down from 85% three months ago. For April, the probabilities of “La Niña” decrease to 48%, equal to those of neutrality. Neutral conditions become dominant with a 50% probability and remain so during March-May 2025.
For April, the probabilities of “La Niña” decrease to 48%, equal to those of neutrality, indicates the BCR report.
“We are coming off three consecutive campaigns of ‘La Niñas’ with fatal effects, and now we can dismiss that dreaded possibility. This gives us a glimmer of hope for both the current campaign and the next one, as the worst-case scenario, seeing another ‘La Niña’ for 2025-2026, is off the table,” reported Cristian Russo, head of the Strategic Guide for Agriculture at BCR.
The report also reaffirms that the intensity of “La Niña” will be moderate. “The recent data is very important because it dismisses a rebound in cooling. The strong to very strong ‘La Niña’ expected in April has been ruled out. The current anomaly for December is -1.3, compared to -2.3 three months ago. The new data also shows a more abrupt decline in cooling starting in January 2025 compared to what was predicted a month ago,” Elorriaga highlighted.
The study also emphasizes that unlike what happened in the last “La Niña” (2022/23), this time water scarcity will not be exacerbated due to the neutrality of the Indian Ocean Dipole. Additionally, the exit from “El Niño” produced significant rainfall in April and March, leaving the soil profiles filled with moisture, which is a positive change compared to the dry conditions faced in previous cycles.
The exit from “El Niño” produced significant rainfall in April and March, leaving the soil profiles filled with moisture (BCR).
Producers and technicians in the central Pampas region hope that this rain will significantly improve the state of wheat, which is currently showing signs of water stress.