Source: Agro Clave

A report from the Rosario Stock Exchange indicated that the chances of consecutive La Niña events in 2024 and 2025 are almost nil. This is welcomed by the agricultural sector as it reduces the risk of repeating the historic drought of the 2022/23 cycle. Consultant Alfredo Elorriaga explained that new updates show a marked trend towards neutrality starting April 2025.

Despite the intense El Niño in the previous season, the effects of three consecutive La Niñas are still felt in the sector. The third event, amplified by the Indian Ocean’s effect, caused severe water scarcity. The Rosario Stock Exchange’s analysis shows that no consecutive La Niña is expected this year. The probability of La Niña for March 2025 has decreased from 73% to 66%, with April probabilities at 48%, equal to neutrality. Neutral conditions are expected to dominate from March to May 2025.

The latest data confirm a moderate La Niña, ruling out a strong event previously anticipated for April. The current anomaly for December is -1.3, compared to -2.3 three months ago.